S&P ends at record high as rate hike bets fall on PPI data; Cisco caps Dow’s gains
Wall Street on Thursday ended at a record high, as rate-sensitive technology stocks got a lift from mostly benign producer inflation data that prompted traders to pare Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Treasury yields slid in response, while falling oil prices also helped the mood.
The benchmark S&P 500 index added 0.7% to close at 7,799.57 points, after earlier crossing the 7,800 level for the first time and posting an all-time intraday high of 7,816.79 points. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.8% to settle at 26,803.03 points. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% to conclude at 53,840.14 points.
“Interest rate hike expectations have receded following the deceleration of inflation in both the CPI yesterday and the PPI today. That has resulted in a strong bid in stocks and bonds. We are seeing the early signs of the broadening rally returning. The S&P 500 Equal Weight, S&P 400, and Russell 2000 are viewed as the key beneficiaries of a less hawkish Federal Reserve,” Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading, told Investing.com.
September rate hike odds take another hit after PPI data
A day after an in-line July consumer inflation report, investors were focused on producer price readings for the same period.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline July producer price index (PPI) was flat on a M/M basis, while ticking up 4.7% Y/Y. In June, headline PPI had slipped 0.1% M/M and climbed 5.5% Y/Y. The July readings were softer than economists’ expectations.
Meanwhile, July core PPI added 0.2% M/M and 4.2% Y/Y, against estimates of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively. In June, core PPI had risen 0.4% M/M and 4.7% Y/Y.
With both reports in hand, headline and core CPI and PPI have now moderated on a Y/Y basis. Both indicators are widely followed, but the Fed prefers to track the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to gauge inflation. Components from CPI and PPI feed into the PCE.
“Core PPI was about as expected, but its details have upward implications for July core PCE in its release later this month. Portfolio management services jumped 6.5% on the month in the PPI report and are up 22.5% on the year. This price category tracks closely with stock market indexes, and the market is way up over the last 12 months. Portfolio management prices’ big July increase will add to core PCE inflation in the next release,” Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said.
“For the Fed, the PPI report doesn’t change the big picture on inflation: It’s too high, but core inflation is lower than the headline, and the picture for both improved in July. The July CPI and PPI reports keep a narrow path open for the Fed to hold rates steady at the September decision. The August CPI and PPI reports will come out before that decision, so today’s data aren’t the final word,” he added.
As per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a September rate hike slipped to about 34% after the PPI data, while the odds of the Fed holding rates steady rose to nearly 66%.
Rate-sensitive assets also reacted accordingly, with U.S. Treasury yields falling as bonds were snapped up. The benchmark longer-end 10-year yield was last down 5.6 basis points to 4.636%, while the shorter-end 2-year yield slipped 5.4 basis points to 4.145%. Technology stocks got a lift, with the S&P 500 tech sector closing 1% higher.
Cisco slides, caps Dow
Speaking of tech, Cisco Systems reported strong quarterly results, helped by the runaway demand for the gear needed to underpin artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The networking equipment giant’s top boss Chuck Robbins told the Wall Street Journal that the company had not experienced this level of demand across all of its portfolio in three decades. The firm has received billions of dollars worth of orders from megacap tech firms which have been pouring an increasing amount of funds into developing their AI systems.
However, shares of the Dow 30 component declined more than 8%, capping gains in the blue-chip gauge. Expectations had been sky-high heading into the earnings, and the stock had seen a surge of more than 60% YTD ahead of the report.
Attention is now on AI chip equipment supplier Applied Materials, which will report results after the closing bell. The overall semiconductor space has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index having jumped almost 80% YTD.
Oil takes a breather after six-day win streak
Turning to the Middle East, oil prices finally lost some steam on Thursday. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, which had logged a six-day winning run, were last down 2.3% to $86.96 a barrel.
The U.S. and Iran remain at loggerheads over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have independently asserted their right over the vital waterway, with Washington officials, including President Donald Trump, insisting that the chokepoint is open to commercial ships. However, Tehran has said otherwise, demanding that the U.S. meet conditions including the cessation of all hostilities and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.
Iran’s state media on Thursday said the strait remained under Tehran’s “full control,” citing comments made by the Iranian Armed Forces.
“No commercial vessel or oil tanker will be able to transit safely through this strait without Iran’s authorization. U.S. claims are false and constitute psychological warfare,” the Armed Forces said, according to state media.
Traffic through the strait has trickled to its lowest levels since mid-May, according to data from shipping tracker Kpler. Separately, attacks on ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have exacerbated supply disruption concerns.
Oil market traders also parsed cuts to demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Ambar Warrick and Scott Kanowsky contributed to this article
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